Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
